Who is Disrupting the Food Value Chain: Regulators, Incumbents, Startups or Consumers (RISC)?

The food value chain is the backbone of society but far from aligned with the Paris climate targets or the European Commission's Green Deal. About one third of greenhouse gas emissions are emanating from it globally. About half are due to meat production which appropriates about 80 percent of agricultural land for feed production. The high land use is associated with biodiversity loss and natural habitat destruction. The unsustainable footprint of meat production may be disrupted either by policy makers that bring agriculture in line with climate policies, or consumers that shy away from meat products for climate, health or animal welfare reasons, or innovators or incumbents that use new technologies to substitute meat products by offering the same sensual experience at lower cost and superior quality. This project explores the potentially disruptive impact of regulators, incumbents, consumers, or startups (RISC) and elaborates diffusion curves for meat alternatives based on in-depth analyses of these potential disruptors. The diffusion scenarios are used to assess the impact of the most likely scenarios on the food value chain in terms of production, value added, employment and greenhouse gas emissions with a regional focus on Austria.