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Weitere Publikationen: Thomas Url (67 Treffer)

We assess the effectiveness of the financial sector stabilisation measures taken by the Austrian authorities in the wake of the global financial crisis. Employing an event study methodology, we evaluate domestic and cross-border effects involving Central, Eastern and South-eastern European economies. We identify recapitalisations and public guarantees as the most effective sovereign interventions. Both mitigate financial market stress at home and abroad. However, a risk-shifting effect emerges at the sovereign's expense which undermines their effectiveness relative to monetary policy interventions. Moreover, in complement to the actual implementation, the mere announcement of interventions already mitigates financial market stress, underscoring the extent of policy credibility.
This article reports on the most recent update of Austria's effective exchange rate indices, which serve to aggregate data on bilateral exchange rates and relative prices or costs into indicators of Austria's short- to medium-term international competitive position. As before, the weighting scheme builds on bilateral trade data for Austria's 56 most important trading partners and a three-year averaging period, which we were able to move forward to the period 2013-2015. Upon recalculation of existing observations from January 2013 onward, we find confirmation for the medium-term worsening of Austria's competitive position, but in a less pronounced form than suggested by the previous weighting scheme. On the tail end of the curve, the COVID-19 crisis in general and short-time work subsidies in particular have distorted several indicators in 2020 and 2021. With regard to the geographical focus of Austria's international trade relations, we observe a shift away from the large EU economies towards the USA and China, plus a weaker shift from Northeastern Europe towards Eastern Europe and Turkey. Given the economic relevance of tourism for Austria, we newly created a real effective exchange rate for the tourism industry. In this segment of the economy, we see a more pronounced appreciation than in the service sector as a whole from 2015 onward, which would normally imply a decline in tourism services output. That Austria's tourism industry clearly continued to thrive indicates that the appreciation coincided with an upward shift of prices and supply toward higher quality segments.
in: Long-Term and Pension Savings – The Real Return
With around 90 percent of the average retirement income received from public pension entitlements, the Austrian pension system is very reliant on the first pillar. Occupational pensions are primarily offered through pension funds and insurance companies. Direct commitments are an alternative vehicle, but their usage stagnates. The option for defined contribution plans with favourable tax treatment offered either by pension funds or insurance companies boosted the prevalence of occupational pensions in Austria. While occupational pensions have become more popular over time, low interest rates and a high liquidity preference dampened demand for individual life insurance contracts. Over the years 2002 through 2020, the performance of pension funds in real net terms has been positive, with an annualised average return of 1.4 percent before tax. The life insurance industry followed a distinctly more conservative investment policy and achieved an average annual net real return before tax of 2.1 percent.
Serguei Kaniovski, Martina Lizarazo López, Thieß Petersen, Thomas Url
Makroökonomische Folgen der demografischen Alterung. Simulationen für Deutschland, Japan und die USA bis 2050 (Macroeconomic Consequences of Demographic Ageing: Simulations Until 2050)
Der demographische Wandel ist in den meisten Industrienationen mit einer Alterung und Schrumpfung der Erwerbsbevölkerung verbunden. Daraus ergeben sich erhebliche Konsequenzen für zentrale makroökonomische Größen wie das Bruttoinlandsprodukt, die Arbeitsproduktivität, die Ersparnisse und Investitionen sowie den Leistungsbilanzsaldo. Angesichts des in den nächsten Jahrzehnten zu erwartenden demographischen Wandels müssen vor allem die stark alternden Länder Deutschland und Japan mit einer spürbaren Dämpfung des Wirtschaftswachstums rechnen. Allerdings kann z. B. der technologische Fortschritt in Form von Automatisierung und Digitalisierung diesen Entwicklungen entgegenwirken.
Given the size and the relative strength of the British financial service industry, the decision to pull out of the Single Market may well have more severe consequences on financial services rather than manufacturing. Brexit will create serious non-tariff trade barriers, dampening foreign trade in financial services and the local production of financial services in the UK. In the short term, continuity of existing cross border contracts requires bilateral transitional agreements between the European Commission, individual member countries of the EU 27 and the UK. In the medium to long term, the international nature of financial markets in the UK suggests resilience as a global financial centre but business related to the EU 27 is likely to migrate due to regulatory demands by the European supervisory authorities and the European Central Bank.
in: Schwerpunkt Außenwirtschaft 2018/2019
Herausgeber: Wirtschaftskammer Österreich
Given the size and the relative strength of the British financial service industry, the decision to pull out of the Single Market may well have more severe consequences on financial services rather than manufacturing. Brexit will create serious non-tariff trade barriers, dampening foreign trade in financial services and the local production of financial services in the UK. In the short term, continuity of existing cross border contracts requires bilateral transitional agreements between the European Commission, individual member countries of the EU 27 and the UK. In the medium to long term, the international nature of financial markets in the UK suggests resilience as a global financial centre but business related to the EU 27 is likely to migrate due to regulatory demands by the European supervisory authorities and the European Central Bank.
in: Ján Šebo, Ştefan Dragoş Voicu, Pension Savings – The Real Return 2019 Edition
With around 90 percent of the average retirement income received from public pension entitlements, the Austrian pension system is very reliant on the first pillar. Occupational pensions are primarily offered through pension funds and insurance companies. Direct commitments are an alternative vehicle, but their usage stagnates. The option for defined contribution plans with favourable tax treatment offered by pension funds and insurance contracts definitely boosted the occupational pensions in Austria. While occupational pensions have become more popular over time, low interest rates and a high liquidity preference dampened demand for individual life insurance contracts. Over the years 2002 through 2018, the performance of pension funds in real net terms has been positive, with an annualised average return of 0.9 percent before tax. The life insurance industry followed a distinctly more conservative investment policy and achieved an average annual net real return before tax of 2.2 percent.
Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V., 2018, (53), S.287-297, http://www.gewisola.de/files/Schriften_der_GEWISOLA_Bd_53_2018.pdf
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