Keywords:Economic growth, aging, Austria A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM). Model Documentation and Simulations
KP_Prognose_Modelle
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Auftraggeber: Bundesministerium für Arbeit, Soziales und Konsumentenschutz
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Institut für Höhere Studien
Online seit: 13.06.2014 0:00
We use the Austrian Long-run Macroeconomic Model (A-LMM) for a long-term projection of the Austrian economy until 2070. Our
baseline scenario is the input for micro-simulation models of the Austrian pension insurance system. A-LMM is a neoclassical
growth model replicating stylised facts about growing market economies. The current model update incorporates recent information
from labour market and national accounts data. Compared to the previous report we now project slightly higher labour market
participation rates and – due to the lower starting value in 2013 – a lower level of real output.
Auftraggeber: Bundesministerium für Arbeit, Soziales und Konsumentenschutz
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Institut für Höhere Studien
Online seit: 17.06.2013 0:00
In this short report we present simulations based on an updated version of A-LMM, the Austrian Long-run Macroeconomic Model.
In addition to a baseline scenario based on the main population projection of Statistics Austria, we simulate the effects
of low and high migration, high life expectancy rates, and high or low growth of labour productivity on the macroeconomic
development in Austria till 2070. We also compare the new results with results from the previous update in 2010.